2025 Housing Market Forecasts: What To Expect
Looking ahead to 2025, it's important to know what experts are projecting for the housing market. And whether you're thinking of buying or selling a home next year, having a clear picture of what they’re calling for can help you make the best possible decision for your homeownership plans. Here’s an early look at the most recent projections on mortgage rates, home sales, and prices for 2025. Mortgage Rates Are Projected To Come Down Slightly Mortgage rates play a significant role in the housing market. The forecasts for 2025 from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and Wells Fargo show an expected gradual decline in mortgage rates over the course of the next year (see chart below): Mortgage rates are projected to come down because continued easing of inflation and a slight rise in unemployment rates are key signs of a strong but slowing economy. And many experts believe these signs will encourage the Federal Reserve to lower the Federal Funds Rate, which tends to lead to lower mortgage rates. As Morgan Stanley says: “With the U.S. Federal Reserve widely expected to begin cutting its benchmark interest rate in 2024, mortgage rates could drop as well—at least slightly.” Expect More Homes To Sell The market will see an increase in both the supply of available homes on the market, as well as a rise in demand, as more buyers and sellers who have been sitting on the sidelines because of higher rates choose to make a move. That’s one big reason why experts are projecting an increase in home sales next year. According to Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR, total home sales are forecast to climb slightly, with an average of about 5.4 million homes expected to sell in 2025 (see graph below): That would represent a modest uptick from the lower sales numbers in 2023 and 2024. For reference, about 4.8 million total homes were sold in 2023, and expectations are for around 4.5 million homes to sell this year. While slightly lower mortgage rates are not expected to bring a flood of buyers and sellers back to the market, they certainly will get more people moving. That means more homes available for sale – and competition among buyers who want to purchase them. Home Prices Will Go Up Moderately More buyers ready to jump into the market will put continued upward pressure on prices. Take a look at the latest price forecasts from 10 of the most trusted sources in real estate (see graph below): On average, experts forecast home prices will rise nationally by about 2.6% next year. But as you can see, there’s a range of opinions on how much prices will climb. Experts agree, however, that home prices will continue to increase moderately next year at a slower, more normal rate. But keep in mind, prices will always vary by local market. Next Steps Understanding 2025 housing market forecasts can help you plan your next move. Whether you're buying or selling, staying informed about these trends will ensure you make the best decision possible. Let’s connect to discuss how these forecasts could impact your plans.
How the Federal Reserve’s Next Move Could Impact the Housing Market
Now that it’s September, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve (the Fed). The overwhelming expectation is that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their upcoming meeting, driven primarily by recent signs that inflation is cooling, and the job market is slowing down. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, said: “They’re ready to cut, just as long as we don’t get an inflation surprise between now and September, which we won’t.” But what does this mean for the housing market, and more importantly, for you as a potential homebuyer or seller? Why a Federal Funds Rate Cut Matters The Federal Funds Rate is one of the key factors that influences mortgage rates – things like the economy, geopolitical uncertainty, and more also have an impact. When the Fed cuts the Federal Funds Rate, it signals what’s happening in the broader economy, and mortgage rates tend to respond. While a single rate cut might not lead to a dramatic drop in mortgage rates, it could contribute to the gradual decline that’s already happening. As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), points out: “Once the Fed kicks off a rate-cutting cycle, we do expect that mortgage rates will move somewhat lower.” And any upcoming Federal Funds Rate cut likely won’t be a one-time event. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says: “Generally, the rate-cutting cycle is not one-and-done. Six to eight rounds of rate cuts all through 2025 look likely.” The Projected Impact on Mortgage Rates Here’s what experts in the industry project for mortgage rates through 2025. One contributing factor to this ongoing gradual decline is the anticipated cuts from the Fed. The graph below shows the latest forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, NAR, and Wells Fargo (see graph below): So, with recent improvements in inflation and signs of a cooling job market, a Federal Funds Rate cut is likely to lead to a moderate decline in mortgage rates (shown in the dotted lines). Here are two big reasons why that’s good news for both buyers and sellers: 1. It Helps Alleviate the Lock-In Effect For current homeowners, lower mortgage rates could help ease the lock-in effect. That’s where people feel stuck within their current home because today’s rates are higher than what they locked in when they bought their current house. If the fear of losing your low-rate mortgage and facing higher costs has kept you out of the market, a slight reduction in rates could make selling a bit more attractive again. However, this isn’t expected to bring a flood of sellers to the market, as many homeowners may still be cautious about giving up their existing mortgage rate. 2. It Should Boost Buyer Activity For potential homebuyers, any drop in mortgage rates will provide a more inviting housing market. Lower mortgage rates can reduce the overall cost of homeownership, making it more feasible for you if you’ve been waiting to make a move. What Should You Do? While a Federal Funds Rate cut is not expected to lead to drastically lower mortgage rates, it will likely contribute to the gradual decrease that’s already happening. And while the anticipated rate cut represents a positive shift for the future of the housing market, it’s important to consider your options right now. Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, sums it up well: “Timing the market is basically impossible. If you’re always waiting for perfect market conditions, you’re going to be waiting forever. Buy now only if it’s a good idea for you.” Next Steps The expected Federal Funds Rate cut, driven by improving inflation and slower job growth, is likely to have a positive, though gradual, impact on mortgage rates. That could help unlock opportunities for you. When you’re ready, let’s connect. That way you’ll be prepared to take action when the time is right for you.
How Mortgage Rate Changes Impact Your Homebuying Power
If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home, you’ve probably got mortgage rates on your mind. That’s because you’ve likely heard that mortgage rates impact how much you can afford in your monthly mortgage payment, and you want to factor that into your planning. Here’s what you need to know. What’s Happening with Mortgage Rates? Mortgage rates have been trending down recently. While that’s good news for your homebuying plans, it’s important to know that rates can be unpredictable because they’re affected by many factors. Things like the economy, job market, inflation, and decisions made by the Federal Reserve all play a part. So, even as rates go down, they can still bounce around a bit based on new economic data. As Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, says: “The ongoing deceleration in inflation, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s recent indication of potential rate cuts [in 2024], suggests an environment supportive of modest declines in mortgage rates. Barring any unforeseen circumstances and resurgence in inflation, lower mortgage rates could be on the horizon, but the journey towards them might be slow and bumpy.” How Do These Changes Affect You? When mortgage rates change, it affects how much you pay each month for your home loan. Even a small rate change can make a big difference to your monthly bill. Take a look at the chart below to see how different mortgage rates impact your house payment each month for various loan amounts. Imagine you can afford a monthly payment of $2,600 for your home loan. The green part in the chart shows payments in that range or lower based on varying mortgage rates (see chart below): Understanding how mortgage rates impact your payment helps you make better decisions. How Can You Keep Track of the Latest on Rates? Real estate agents have the expertise to help you understand what’s happening and what it means for you. They can provide tools and visuals, like the chart above, to show how rate changes impact your buying power. You don’t need to be a mortgage expert; you just need a professional by your side. Someone who can help you make sense of the market and guide you through your homebuying or selling journey. Next Steps If you have questions about the housing market, let’s connect. That way you’ll understand what’s going on and how to navigate it.
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